Volcanic Ash

I wasn’t able to catch all of debate on community television stations the other night between gubernatorial candidates Neil Abercrombie and Duke Aiona, but from the parts I saw it was a welcome return to a simple format that put all the attention on the candidates and issues.

The candidates sat side by side on a plain set with a draped folding table. There was a live audience  — the sponsoring Maui Economic Development Board — but unlike some of the debates on commercial TV, it wasn’t a rowdy crowd that was allowed to disrupt the proceedings with partisan hooting and hollering.

Instead of questions coming from multiple directions that showcased those asking as much as those answering, there was a single moderator, Kayla Rosenfeld of Hawai‘i Public Radio, who ably set a consistent and orderly tone while giving the candidates an even shot at presenting their views.

In the end, you got a pretty good idea of where Abercrombie and Aiona differ on some of the major issues in the campaign.

It goes to show that we don’t need a lot of glitz and artificial excitement to generate interest in a campaign at this level, and I hope KITV and PBS Hawai‘i take note in the “major” televised debates coming up.

The contest for governor between Duke Aiona and Neil Abercrombie has turned negative, but in an ever-so-gentle manner.

The Republican Governors Association has been running a series of “Rise & Shine Hawaii” TV spots presenting positive views of Aiona’s positions on education and other issues.

The RGA’s latest ad goes negative for the first time, but I have to say it’s the nicest negative ad I’ve ever seen.

It starts out expressing appreciation for the Democrat Abercrombie’s 35 years in politics, showing a picture of him in his Sunday best with his blue blazer and neatly trimmed hair and beard.

The announcer goes on, “We appreciate his service, but not how he’s voted. Abercrombie voted for higher taxes on Hawai‘i families, the bailout, failed stimulus — bonuses for Wall Street executives.”

Cut to somewhat grungier picture of the former congressman and the question: “In this economy, Mr. Abercrombie?”

Then comes a picture of a beatific looking Aiona and the announcer’s soothing assurance: “Fortunately, Hawaii has a choice we can afford. Duke Aiona will oppose tax increases and create jobs. A smart, independent leader. Duke Aiona for governor.”

Very mild as far as negative ads go, and a clear sign of the sensitivity to negative advertising in the race after the huge backfire of Mufi Hannemann’s “Compare and Decide” in the primary.

It reminds me of advice in the book “Etiquette for Outlaws” on what to do if you feel a bout of flatulence coming on while at a party. The advice is to find somewhere semi-private to cut a test fart, see how bad it smells and gauge from that if it’s safe to let loose back in mixed company.

This ad was the political equivalent of a test fart to see how much negativity the electorate will tolerate, and it’ll be ramped up until blowback is encountered.

I tried last week to give Duke Aiona my best advice not to start a debate about debates against Neil Abercrombie, but he wouldn’t be denied and it put a bit of tarnish on what was otherwise a good week for the Republican candidate for governor.

The Democrat Abercrombie took the week off to recharge his batteries from his grueling primary race against Mufi Hannemann, and Aiona took advantage of it with a series of news conferences to spotlight his proposals for jobs and the economy, energy, agriculture, the environment, transportation and health care.

Abercrombie had earlier released all of his policy initiatives at once in a 45-page booklet called “A New Day in Hawaii” and was disappointed in the news coverage it got; Aiona got better media attention by spreading it over several events.

But he distracted attention from his substantive proposals by using each occasion to carp at Abercrombie for not accepting his proposal for six televised debates, making that the story — and not necessarily a favorable one for the lieutenant governor.

KITV reported that Aiona seemed clueless about his campaign’s negotiations for a debate on that station that he ultimately agreed to.

And the Maui News chided him in an editorial for accusing Abercrombie of ducking debates after himself refusing to debate his primary opponent John Carroll and ducking joint appearances with Abercrombie and Hannemann.

“It is a little disingenuous to demand that Abercrombie debate him now when Aiona ducked opportunities to do so earlier. His caginess in the primaries is coming back to bite him now,” the editorial said.

But Aiona persisted, and looked a little silly by insisting “he’s ducking, he’s definitely ducking” the same day it was revealed that both candidates had accepted through the normal channels three televised debates and three other joint appearances, with more still on the table.

In a side angle to the debate fracas, Hawaii News Now appears shut out of the gubernatorial debates for the general after all sides complained that its primary debates lacked dignity, with raucus audience participation, “lightning rounds” and an overly busy format that seemed intended to spotlight news personalities as much as the candidates.

Aiona conditionally accepted the HNN debate, but not before complaining to Star-Advertiser reporter Derrick DePledge about the format, saying, “This is not a circus. It’s not entertainment.”

Spokesman Jim McCoy said Abercrombie turned down HNN and KHON mainly because he appeared in their debates in the primary and wanted to be fair and give KITV and PBS Hawaii a chance in the general.

But McCoy said the HNN format was a factor after both the Abercrombie and Hannemann camps were unhappy with the primary debate in which both candidates were heckled by supporters of the other and felt they were given too little time to answer questions.

“During pre primary debate discussions, both the Abercrombie and Hannemann campaigns opposed the ‘lightning round’ aspect, but the station wouldn’t give it up,” McCoy said. “The station stuck to its guns, saying lightning rounds and studio audiences liven a debate, but I recall both our side and Mufi’s side saying it will be lively given who the participants were.

“There were also tug of wars over time allotted  for answers, and you saw the results; candidates were cut off in mid sentence due to the red light going off.”

Two days after Republican James “Duke” Aiona challenged his Democratic opponent for governor Neil Abercrombie to six debates, Aiona’s campaign manager Dutch Hanohano issued a press release ripping Abercrombie for not immediately accepting.

“The people of Hawai‘i need real solutions, not just talk,” Hanohano said in what  hardly seemed a compelling argument for six hours of talk.

There is nothing more boring in a political campaign than a debate about debates, which is on the same intellectual level as the argument over the shape of the table at the Paris peace talks.

In the 2006 Senate race between Daniel Akaka and Ed Case, you would have thought for a time that Case’s only issue was Akaka’s refusal to debate him as often as he wanted. You saw how far that got him.

Early in this year’s Democratic primary, it was Abercrombie whining that Mufi Hannemann wouldn’t agree to his debate demands. They ended up debating so many times in forums around the state that they were feeding each other cues.

Aiona is right that there need to be substantive debates before we go to the polls, but no candidate is going to accept an opponent’s debate proposal as presented — effectively allowing his own campaign timetable to be set by the opposition.

It happens by the campaigns meeting with the private groups that sponsor debates and hashing out a schedule. Until that process happens, trying to paint an opponent as being afraid to debate is one of the oldest — and cheapest — tricks in the book.

This election isn’t going to be decided by who’s the better debate organizer.

Local Republicans had better hope they’re better at campaigning than arithmetic heading into the general election for governor.

After Saturday’s primary, GOP chairman Jonah Ka‘auwai issued a statement belittling Neil Abercrombie’s landslide victory over Mufi Hannemann on the Democratic side.

Ka‘auwai said, “While a stunning percentage victory over Hannemann, Abercrombie garnered fewer votes than Randy Iwase did in 2006 Democrat Primary for governor.  Democrats will now have to fight to unify after a bitter primary while Republicans are already unified and ready to hit the ground running in the weeks leading into the General Election.”

I’m not sure how he figures; Abercrombie got 142,234 votes against Hannemann compared to Iwase’s 119,058 votes against William Aila in 2006.

The only good news Republicans can take from the 2006 numbers is that Iwase barely improved his total in the general election to 121,717 votes, while Republican incumbent Gov. Linda Lingle swooped in to take virtually all of Aila’s votes, all of the  51,813 blank Democratic ballots and all of the  72,295 additional voters who came into the general to amass 215,313 in trouncing Iwase.

But this isn’t 2006, Aiona isn’t Lingle and Abercrombie isn’t Iwase.

In that race, Lingle was a popular incumbent with $6 million while Iwase was a relatively little-known late starter who put up a brave fight with pocket change. This time, Abercrombie has the better established track record against the untested Aiona, who has never won an election on his own, and the Democrats will be at no significant disadvantage in funding.

The real math facing the Republicans is daunting. Primary turnout this year was slightly more than 2006 at 292,838 compared to 276,693. If increased turnout in the general election turnout is also roughly comparable, it’ll be about 370,000 and Abercrombie or Aiona would need around 185,000 votes to win.

Assuming Abercrombie holds most of the 142,234 voters who favored him in the primary, a good bet, he’d need only about 43,000 more to win from the 90,535 Hannemann votes and 70,000+ additional voters expected to come into the general election, which would seem quite achievable if Democrats present the wall of unity they are promising.

The Republican challenge will be to throw up some kind of game changer and hope Abercrombie blunders after carefully avoiding doing so in the primary.

The likely GOP strategy will be to appeal to religious voters and harshly attack Abercrombie’s liberal congressional record in a way Hannemann couldn’t after his ill-advised “Compare and Decide” ad raised voter sensitivity to any kind of negative campaigning.

But the Republicans won’t be immune from attack themselves, with the Lingle administration’s eight-year record of gridlock with the Legislature and a dismal economy to answer for.